Falling Russian Spacecraft

Experts predict that Russia's failed Mars probe Phobos-Grunt will crash back to Earth in mid-January 2012. This artist's concept shows fuel burning from a ruptured fuel tank as the spacecraft re-enters the atmosphere.
CREDIT: Michael Carroll

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Russia's botched Mars probe mission Phobos-Grunt is fast-approaching a fiery death, with just one or two days remaining before it falls from space, experts and Russian space officials say.

An artist's concept of the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft nearing the Martian moon Phobos, something the failed probe never got to do.
CREDIT: Roscosmos
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"The European Space Agency's current re-entry prediction for Phobos-Grunt … points to the early evening (Central European Time) on Sunday, Jan.15, with an uncertainty of plus/minus five orbits," equal to plus or minus 7.5 hours, Heiner Klinkrad, head of the space debris office at ESA’s European Space Operations Center in Darmstadt, Germany, told SPACE.com today (Jan. 14) in an email.

A statement today by Russia's Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) also pegged Sunday as the crash day for Phobos-Grunt, but went even farther. According to the statement, released in Russian, the 14-ton spacecraft filled with fuel is expected to fall on Jan. 15 and may crash in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Chile.

The translation of the statement and map released by Russian space officials depict the potential crash time as occurring at about 2151 GMT (4:51 p.m. EST), although major uncertainties still remain. There is a chance the spacecraft could fall earlier in the day, or later on Monday, Jan. 16.